Veteran surf forecaster Mark Sponsler, founder of Stormsurf, is closely monitoring a promising wave pattern in the North Pacific, sparking discussions about whether it signals the return of El Niño this winter. While Sponsler doesn’t expect a full-fledged El Niño event, he acknowledges that certain indicators suggest we’re witnessing conditions often associated with this phenomenon.
Sponsler, who has been tracking global weather patterns for over 26 years, is known for his analytical, no-nonsense approach to forecasting. He emphasizes “essential data for outdoor people,” without the hype often associated with seasonal weather predictions. His focus is particularly sharp on Northern California and iconic breaks like Maverick’s.
Jet Stream Patterns and El Niño Symptoms
The current conditions point to a strong jet stream pattern stretching across the Pacific. “For the next two weeks, it seems reasonable to assume that this strong jet stream and storm track will hold,” Sponsler says. “That would typically be associated with El Niño, but it’s not quite there yet.”
This active jet stream is being supercharged by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a weather pattern that moves across the equator from west to east. When in its active phase, the MJO can amplify El Niño conditions by triggering wind patterns that warm the Pacific Ocean. However, Sponsler explains that the MJO is currently positioned over Southeast Asia, far from the usual regions that would initiate an El Niño shift.
While El Niño conditions aren’t fully materializing, the ocean is still showing signs of powerful storms forming. “It’s La Niña, but it’s also parts of El Niño,” Sponsler notes, pointing to the complexity of this season’s weather patterns.
A Promising Swell for the West Coast
Despite the absence of a full El Niño, the surf models are forecasting a substantial run of swells heading towards the U.S. West Coast. Sponsler highlights the powerful jet stream, which, this week, extends from Japan to nearly the international date line in the central Pacific. With winds reaching up to 210 knots, Sponsler describes it as “very impressive” for this time of year.
For Northern California surfers, the next week looks especially promising. Sponsler’s short-term forecast includes multiple storm systems:
Dec. 16-18: A gale develops over the Gulf of Alaska, sending swells with seas up to 33 feet southeastward. Expect swell arrival by Tuesday, Dec. 17.
Dec. 15-18: A major storm forms west of the dateline, generating seas up to 44 feet aimed eastward, with swell arriving Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Dec. 19-22: Another broad system emerges on the dateline, pushing seas of 29-33 feet southeast. Secondary energy develops in the Southeast Gulf, impacting Southern California by Dec. 21
Dec. 22-23: A monster storm is forecast to move through the Gulf of Alaska with seas reaching up to 56 feet, sending powerful swells eastward.
Sponsler advises caution, noting that while these forecasts show dramatic swell potential, particularly the 56-foot seas, they are still far enough out that the models are subject to change. However, even if the storm systems manifest at only 75% of their predicted intensity, they could still produce significant long-period swells.
Looking Ahead: La Niña Year with Big Swells
Although we are still in a La Niña year, Sponsler concludes that the current jet stream activity points to a potentially wild stretch of surf ahead. “It’s probably a bit overhyped, but it’s something to behold if it pans out,” he says. “This could turn into a significant long-period swell-producing machine.”
With another storm system already on the horizon, surfers on the West Coast should remain alert, as conditions are shaping up for a period of large swells. “This is your window,” Sponsler advises. “Go get it while you can—there are no guarantees on a La Niña year, but we’re clearly there.”
As the season progresses, all eyes will remain on the Pacific Ocean, where the interplay between La Niña and potential El Niño conditions could lead to an unpredictable, yet promising winter of surf.
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